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The Italian economy, after showing signs of recovery with a 0.3% growth in the first quarter of 2025, is now facing potential slowdown due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs. According to the latest reports from Confindustria's Centro studi, this uncertainty is primarily affecting exports and investments, which are crucial for the industry's recovery. The situation is further complicated by fluctuating decisions from the Trump administration, adding to the economic unpredictability.
Despite these challenges, there's a silver lining as the lower growth expectations have led to a decrease in energy prices. This development is seen as a positive factor that could facilitate the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to continue cutting interest rates in 2025. The price of gas in Europe has notably dropped to 33 €/mwh in May from 50 €/mwh in February, and electricity prices have also seen a significant reduction.
The global demand slowdown is reflected in the falling oil prices, which have decreased to $62 per barrel in May from $76 in February. This trend, along with the strengthening of the euro, is expected to contribute to lower inflation rates in the Eurozone, contrasting with the higher inflation rates in the USA, where tariffs are anticipated to push import prices up.
Business confidence in Italy has been declining for the third consecutive month, reaching 91.5 in April from 93.2, signaling growing uncertainty among firms. The demand for capital goods remains weak, and retail sales have contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter. However, there's a slight recovery in car registrations, which increased by 2.7% annually in April. These mixed indicators highlight the fragile state of the Italian economy as it navigates through the challenges posed by tariffs and global economic fluctuations.
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